Clarify the status of Scotland within the United Kingdom (Scottish electorate).

The Kingdom of Scotland was unified in 843.  In 1296 Edward I of England conquered parts of it but there remained massive resistance to English rule and Scotland became independent again after the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314 and the subsequent signing of the Treaty of Edinburgh-Northampton in 1328. Almost 300 years later the crowns of England and Scotland were united with the accession of James VI to the English throne in 1603 but Scotland remained an independent realm until 1707 and the Treaty of Union.  This was deeply unpopular in Scotland and England and the Scottish treaty signatories had to sign in secret because of rioting in Edinburgh.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) was formed in 1934 after the merger of the National Party of Scotland and Scottish Party. The SNP first won a parliamentary seat at the Motherwell by-election in 1945 but lost the seat at the general election three months later. The SNP had their second MP in 1967 when Winnie Ewing surprisingly won the Hamilton by-election.  This led to Edward Heath's 1968 Declaration of Perth, supporting some form of Scottish devolution, and to Harold Wilson's 1969 setting up of the Kilbrandon Commission.

The discovery of North Sea oil reinforced the debate over Scottish independence and the SNP organised a successful campaign entitled 'It's Scotland's oil' which led to seven SNP MPs being elected in the February 1974 general election. In the subsequent October 1974 election the SNP gained eleven seats with over 30% of the vote.  As a result, in 1978 the Labour government arranged for a referendum on Scottish devolution which was defeated.  The 1997 referendum to form a Scottish Parliament was passed by 74% of those who voted (45% of the electorate).

In September 2009 the Scottish Government announced detailed proposals to hold a referendum on Scottish independence during 2010.  The First Minister, Alex Salmond MSP, said: 'It is time for the people of Scotland to have their say. Not everyone will agree with our vision for the future, we know that.  But the people of Scotland must be heard. This parliament should not stand in their way - let the people speak.'  However the SNP does not have a majority in the Scottish Parliament and the other parties represented are expected to defeat the referendum proposal.

In November 2009 IPSOS/Mori conducted a poll to ask the Scottish electorate their views on independence and this showed only minority support for the policy.  The results were summarised as follows: 'One in five Scots say that they will vote for independence in a referendum (20%). Substantially more will either prefer the status quo (32%) or greater powers for the Parliament (46%). Important to this division of opinion is the stance of SNP supporters.  They are divided between wanting more powers for the Parliament (43%) and wanting full independence (49%).  None of the other parties has significant numbers supporting the independence option (the highest being Labour, at 8%).'

The poll also showed that a clear majority of Scots would prefer to see a Labour government after the next general election.  When asked: 'The UK General Election next year is likely to result in either a Conservative or Labour government in Westminster. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which do you think will be best for Scotland, a Conservative government in Westminster, or a Labour Government?', 61% of Scots wanted a Labour Government and only 24% a Conservative government.  73% of Liberal Democrat supporters want to see a Labour government, as do 58% of SNP supporters.  A Conservative win in the 2010 general election would therefore be likely to increase support for Scottish independence.

The holding of a referendum on independence is popular.  When asked by IPSOS/Mori: 'The Scottish Government has proposed a referendum on Scotland's constitutional future.  Which of the following statements comes closest to your own view about the referendum?', 75% said it should be held 'as soon as possible' (25%) or 'within a few years' (50%).  Only 20% did not want a referendum on this issue (with 5% 'Don't Know').  

The Jury Team therefore proposes that there should be a referendum to clarify the position of Scotland as the uncertainty is hurting investment and diverting substantial political resources away from economic and social development.  

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